Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Bet Builder Tips & Odds

By Robert Carter, NHL Analyst | Published: 13 hours ago | Last Updated: May 1, 19:37 | 6 min read

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ice Hockey Canadian Tire Centre Fri 2 May 07:00

Ottawa Senators

  1. Prediction
  2. Bet Builder
  3. Correct Score
  4. Odds
  5. Team Stats
  6. Player Stats
  7. Player Props
  8. Team News
  9. Lineups
  10. Injuries
  11. Roster
  12. Standings
  13. Live Stream

Senators To Have No Joy

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 25-13-3 Away) clash with Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 27-11-3 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round matchup at Canadian Tire Centre. The Leafs led the series 3-2.

There is merit in backing the Maple Leafs on the Moneyline considering our betting prediction is that they will beat the Senators. Especially as 1.98 is available about this happening.

7 Senators Victories in Last 10 H2H Battles

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators faced off two nights ago, with the Sens claiming a 4-0 win at Scotiabank Arena.

The Sens had 25 shots on goal and there were four different goalscorers including Tim Stutzle. Linus Ullmark got a shutout making 29 saves. The Leafs won the shots on goal battle, 29-19.

The Sens have won seven of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Expected)
Season W-L-OTL: GAA: SV%: SO:
24/25 15-8-3 2.4 .917 1
23/24 16-7-1 2.03 .925 2
Linus Ullmark (Expected)
Season W-L-OTL: GAA: SV%: SO:
24/25 19-13-3 2.78 .908 3
23/24 22-10-5 2.57 .915 2
Toronto Maple Leafs – Last 10 Games

8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.2 goals from 26.6 shots on goal, with a 13.6% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 2.1 goals from 25.9 shots, averaging 4.3 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 83.7%.

Mitchell Marner is the top points scorer with 15 points, 4 goals and 11 assists, with Auston Matthews recording 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.79 goal against average with a .924 save percentage, including two shutouts.

Ottawa Senators – Last 10 Games

The Sens have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 28.4 shots on goal, with a 18.9% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.4 goals from 26.6 shots, averaging 4.6 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.6%.

The top points scorer is Tim Stutzle with 12 points, 5 goals and 7 assists, while Drake Batherson is next best after registering 9 points, 5 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.00 GAA with a .880 SV%, including one shutout.

Expert NHL Analysis

The NHL predictions are only made once we have established the latest team news. It’s also important to study the form and investigate the most relevant player and goalie stats to get the full picture.

Key Maple Leafs vs Senators stats:

  • Maple Leafs have won 8 of their last 10 games.
  • Maple Leafs have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
  • Senators have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs should be able to outscore the home team and our pick is to side with them on the Moneyline. There is a generous 1.98 available for the visitors to win this NHL clash.

There are some value betting options beyond simply backing Toronto to win, with Puck Line, Winning Margin and 3-Way Moneyline viable alternatives to get more juice.

Leafs Moneyline Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 50.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

Our Pick

Maple Leafs Moneyline @ 1.98 Watch Live Bet Now bet365 logo
Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.
Published 09:43, 01 May 2025

Player Props

Top Pick: Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots 1.80 bet365 logo

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs) has had Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight games on the road. Out of all the prop bets available, we’re going to take the 1.80 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Latest Bobby McMann Player Prop Odds

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Bet Builder Tips

Moneyline Maple Leafs
To Score Matthew Knies
Shots on Goal Bobby McMann Over 1.5

We’ve got a same game parlay with three options: the Maple Leafs on the moneyline, Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs) to be among the scorers and Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs) to have Over 1.5 shots.

The bet builder option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same hockey game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored wager on the clash which interests them most.

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Anticipating a Close Contest

Ottawa Senators are available at Moneyline odds of 1.85, while opponents Toronto Maple Leafs can be backed at 1.98. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading sportsbooks give the visiting team a 51% chance of success.

There is a puck line of 1.5 and total goals has a line of 5.5. NHL fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Totals wager. If you want to back Over 5.5, it’s 2.02.

You can find a huge selection of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League encounter, with the betting sites creating many different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Auston Matthews Favorite to Find the Net First

Those interested in Auston Matthews to light the lamp at anytime are able to get 2.28. There is the chance to back the favorite to score the first goal at odds of 8.50.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)
First
8.50
Anytime
2.28
bet365 Logo
Brady Tkachuk (Senators)
First
10.00
Anytime
2.65
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William Nylander (Maple Leafs)
First
11.00
Anytime
2.90
bet365 Logo
Drake Batherson (Senators)
First
11.50
Anytime
3.00
bet365 Logo

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)
Over 3.5
1.80
Under 3.5
1.97
bet365 Logo
Brady Tkachuk (Senators)
Over 3.5
1.67
Under 3.5
2.15
bet365 Logo
William Nylander (Maple Leafs)
Over 2.5
1.74
Under 2.5
2.05
bet365 Logo
John Tavares (Maple Leafs)
Over 2.5
2.00
Under 2.5
1.77
bet365 Logo

Micro Betting

It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to NHL micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Check out the live team and player props and see if you can find an angle.

Best Betting Offers

Last 5 & H2H

Head to Head

Toronto vs Ottawa

  • NHL: 30/04 2025 Maple Leafs 0 Senators 4
  • NHL: 27/04 2025 Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3
  • NHL: 25/04 2025 Senators 2 Maple Leafs 3
  • NHL: 23/04 2025 Maple Leafs 3 Senators 2
  • NHL: 21/04 2025 Maple Leafs 6 Senators 2
  • NHL: 16/03 2025 Maple Leafs 2 Senators 4
  • NHL: 26/01 2025 Senators 2 Maple Leafs 1
  • NHL: 13/11 2024 Maple Leafs 0 Senators 3
  • NHL: 11/02 2024 Senators 5 Maple Leafs 3
  • NHL: 28/12 2023 Maple Leafs 2 Senators 4

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Ottawa Senators logo Ottawa Senators Stats

Moneyline

  • 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

  • 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

Puck Line

Total Goals

Total Goals

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Live Streaming

You can watch and bet on NHL games thanks to the live streaming service that’s available. This is only available to eligible sportsbook customers and is subject to geo-restrictions.

It’s great to watch live sports and you’ll find a wide range of choice with the leading betting apps.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Live Stream Watch Live Geo-restrictions apply. To use the services you need to be logged in, a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Stats & Roster

# Player GP MIN G A P +/-
16 Mitchell Marner 5 22.98 1 6 7 0
34 Auston Matthews 5 21.3 1 5 6 0
88 William Nylander 5 19.34 1 5 6 -3

Ottawa Senators Player Stats & Roster

# Player GP MIN G A P +/-
7 Brady Tkachuk 5 18.2 3 3 6 3
18 Tim Stutzle 5 20.02 2 3 5 2
28 Claude Giroux 5 17.54 1 3 4 3

Injuries & Suspensions

Toronto Maple Leafs Injury Table

Type
Name
Info
Jani Hakanpaeae
Injured

Ottawa Senators Injury Table

Type
Name
Info
Hayden Hodgson
Injured

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

Previous Toronto Maple Leafs Lineups

30 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 4-0 Maple Leafs
27 Apr NHL Playoffs
Maple Leafs 3-4 Senators
25 Apr NHL Playoffs
Maple Leafs 3-2 Senators
23 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 2-3 Maple Leafs
21 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 2-6 Maple Leafs
18 Apr NHL
Red Wings 3-4 Maple Leafs
16 Apr NHL
Maple Leafs 4-0 Sabres
14 Apr NHL
Maple Leafs 4-1 Hurricanes
13 Apr NHL
Canadiens 0-1 Maple Leafs
10 Apr NHL
Maple Leafs 4-3 Lightning

Previous Ottawa Senators Lineups

30 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 4-0 Maple Leafs
27 Apr NHL Playoffs
Maple Leafs 3-4 Senators
25 Apr NHL Playoffs
Maple Leafs 3-2 Senators
23 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 2-3 Maple Leafs
21 Apr NHL Playoffs
Senators 2-6 Maple Leafs
18 Apr NHL
Hurricanes 5-7 Senators
16 Apr NHL
Blackhawks 4-3 Senators
14 Apr NHL
Flyers 3-4 Senators
12 Apr NHL
Canadiens 2-5 Senators
09 Apr NHL
Senators 2-5 Blue Jackets

NHL Standings

Metropolitan GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Washington 82 51 22 9 111 0.677 43 49 288 232 56 26-9-6 25-13-3 2-3 4-6 1L
2 Carolina 82 47 30 5 99 0.604 42 47 266 233 33 31-9-1 16-21-4 0-3 3-7 3L
3 New Jersey 82 42 33 7 91 0.555 36 40 242 222 20 19-17-5 23-16-2 2-2 5-5 1L
4 Columbus 82 40 33 9 89 0.543 30 34 273 268 5 26-10-5 14-23-4 6-1 7-3 6W
5 NY Rangers 82 39 36 7 85 0.518 35 38 256 255 1 19-19-3 20-17-4 1-0 5-5 2W
6 NY Islanders 82 35 35 12 82 0.5 28 33 224 260 -36 19-17-5 16-18-7 2-3 3-7 2L
7 Pittsburgh 82 34 36 12 80 0.488 24 33 243 293 -50 21-15-5 13-21-7 1-6 5-5 1W
8 Philadelphia 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 21 27 238 286 -48 20-20-1 13-19-9 6-3 5-5 3L
East Atlantic GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Toronto 82 52 26 4 108 0.659 41 51 268 231 37 27-13-1 25-13-3 1-2 9-1 5W
2 Tampa Bay 82 47 27 8 102 0.622 41 45 294 219 75 29-8-4 18-19-4 2-3 5-5 1L
3 Florida 82 47 31 4 98 0.598 37 41 252 223 29 27-12-2 20-19-2 6-0 3-7 2L
4 Ottawa 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 35 44 243 234 9 27-11-3 18-19-4 1-2 6-4 1W
5 Montreal 82 40 31 11 91 0.555 30 38 245 265 -20 23-12-6 17-19-5 2-4 7-3 1W
6 Detroit 82 39 35 8 86 0.524 30 36 238 259 -21 22-16-3 17-19-5 3-0 6-4 1L
7 Buffalo 82 36 39 7 79 0.482 29 32 269 289 -20 23-15-3 13-24-4 4-2 6-4 1W
8 Boston 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 26 33 222 272 -50 20-14-7 13-25-3 0-1 3-7 1L
East Central GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Winnipeg 82 56 22 4 116 0.707 43 54 277 191 86 30-7-4 26-15-0 2-1 7-3 1W
2 Dallas 82 50 26 6 106 0.646 41 48 277 224 53 28-10-3 22-16-3 2-2 3-7 7L
3 Colorado 82 49 29 4 102 0.622 40 45 277 234 43 26-12-3 23-17-1 4-3 5-5 1W
4 Minnesota 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 33 42 228 239 -11 22-17-2 23-13-5 3-3 5-5 2W
5 St Louis 82 44 30 8 96 0.585 32 40 254 233 21 24-14-3 20-16-5 4-2 7-3 1W
6 Utah 82 38 31 13 89 0.543 30 37 241 251 -10 18-15-8 20-16-5 1-4 6-4 1L
7 Nashville 82 30 44 8 68 0.415 24 28 214 274 -60 20-18-3 10-26-5 2-0 3-7 1W
8 Chicago 82 25 46 11 61 0.372 20 23 226 296 -70 15-20-6 10-26-5 2-4 4-6 2W
West Pacific GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Vegas 82 50 22 10 110 0.671 46 49 275 219 56 29-9-3 21-13-7 1-5 6-4 1W
2 LA Kings 81 48 24 9 105 0.648 43 47 249 201 48 31-5-4 17-19-5 1-3 8-2 4W
3 Edmonton 82 48 29 5 101 0.616 36 48 259 236 23 25-13-3 23-16-2 0-1 7-3 1W
4 Calgary 81 40 27 14 94 0.58 30 35 220 237 -17 23-12-6 17-15-8 5-2 6-4 3W
5 Vancouver 82 38 30 14 90 0.549 28 35 236 253 -17 17-16-8 21-14-6 3-2 4-6 1L
6 Anaheim 82 35 37 10 80 0.488 24 31 221 263 -42 21-18-2 14-19-8 4-2 3-7 4L
7 Seattle 82 35 41 6 76 0.463 28 33 247 265 -18 18-18-5 17-23-1 2-3 5-5 1L
8 San Jose 82 20 50 12 52 0.317 14 18 210 315 -105 12-27-2 8-23-10 2-5 0-10 11L
Eastern GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Washington 82 51 22 9 111 0.677 43 49 288 232 56 26-9-6 25-13-3 2-3 4-6 1L
2 Toronto 82 52 26 4 108 0.659 41 51 268 231 37 27-13-1 25-13-3 1-2 9-1 5W
3 Tampa Bay 82 47 27 8 102 0.622 41 45 294 219 75 29-8-4 18-19-4 2-3 5-5 1L
4 Carolina 82 47 30 5 99 0.604 42 47 266 233 33 31-9-1 16-21-4 0-3 3-7 3L
5 Florida 82 47 31 4 98 0.598 37 41 252 223 29 27-12-2 20-19-2 6-0 3-7 2L
6 Ottawa 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 35 44 243 234 9 27-11-3 18-19-4 1-2 6-4 1W
7 New Jersey 82 42 33 7 91 0.555 36 40 242 222 20 19-17-5 23-16-2 2-2 5-5 1L
8 Montreal 82 40 31 11 91 0.555 30 38 245 265 -20 23-12-6 17-19-5 2-4 7-3 1W
9 Columbus 82 40 33 9 89 0.543 30 34 273 268 5 26-10-5 14-23-4 6-1 7-3 6W
10 Detroit 82 39 35 8 86 0.524 30 36 238 259 -21 22-16-3 17-19-5 3-0 6-4 1L
11 NY Rangers 82 39 36 7 85 0.518 35 38 256 255 1 19-19-3 20-17-4 1-0 5-5 2W
12 NY Islanders 82 35 35 12 82 0.5 28 33 224 260 -36 19-17-5 16-18-7 2-3 3-7 2L
13 Pittsburgh 82 34 36 12 80 0.488 24 33 243 293 -50 21-15-5 13-21-7 1-6 5-5 1W
14 Buffalo 82 36 39 7 79 0.482 29 32 269 289 -20 23-15-3 13-24-4 4-2 6-4 1W
15 Boston 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 26 33 222 272 -50 20-14-7 13-25-3 0-1 3-7 1L
16 Philadelphia 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 21 27 238 286 -48 20-20-1 13-19-9 6-3 5-5 3L
Western GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Winnipeg 82 56 22 4 116 0.707 43 54 277 191 86 30-7-4 26-15-0 2-1 7-3 1W
2 Vegas 82 50 22 10 110 0.671 46 49 275 219 56 29-9-3 21-13-7 1-5 6-4 1W
3 Dallas 82 50 26 6 106 0.646 41 48 277 224 53 28-10-3 22-16-3 2-2 3-7 7L
4 LA Kings 81 48 24 9 105 0.648 43 47 249 201 48 31-5-4 17-19-5 1-3 8-2 4W
5 Colorado 82 49 29 4 102 0.622 40 45 277 234 43 26-12-3 23-17-1 4-3 5-5 1W
6 Edmonton 82 48 29 5 101 0.616 36 48 259 236 23 25-13-3 23-16-2 0-1 7-3 1W
7 Minnesota 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 33 42 228 239 -11 22-17-2 23-13-5 3-3 5-5 2W
8 St Louis 82 44 30 8 96 0.585 32 40 254 233 21 24-14-3 20-16-5 4-2 7-3 1W
9 Calgary 81 40 27 14 94 0.58 30 35 220 237 -17 23-12-6 17-15-8 5-2 6-4 3W
10 Vancouver 82 38 30 14 90 0.549 28 35 236 253 -17 17-16-8 21-14-6 3-2 4-6 1L
11 Utah 82 38 31 13 89 0.543 30 37 241 251 -10 18-15-8 20-16-5 1-4 6-4 1L
12 Anaheim 82 35 37 10 80 0.488 24 31 221 263 -42 21-18-2 14-19-8 4-2 3-7 4L
13 Seattle 82 35 41 6 76 0.463 28 33 247 265 -18 18-18-5 17-23-1 2-3 5-5 1L
14 Nashville 82 30 44 8 68 0.415 24 28 214 274 -60 20-18-3 10-26-5 2-0 3-7 1W
15 Chicago 82 25 46 11 61 0.372 20 23 226 296 -70 15-20-6 10-26-5 2-4 4-6 2W
16 San Jose 82 20 50 12 52 0.317 14 18 210 315 -105 12-27-2 8-23-10 2-5 0-10 11L
GP W L OT PTS P% RW ROW GF GA DIFF Home Road S/O L10 Strk
1 Winnipeg 82 56 22 4 116 0.707 43 54 277 191 86 30-7-4 26-15-0 2-1 7-3 1W
2 Washington 82 51 22 9 111 0.677 43 49 288 232 56 26-9-6 25-13-3 2-3 4-6 1L
3 Vegas 82 50 22 10 110 0.671 46 49 275 219 56 29-9-3 21-13-7 1-5 6-4 1W
4 Toronto 82 52 26 4 108 0.659 41 51 268 231 37 27-13-1 25-13-3 1-2 9-1 5W
5 Dallas 82 50 26 6 106 0.646 41 48 277 224 53 28-10-3 22-16-3 2-2 3-7 7L
6 LA Kings 81 48 24 9 105 0.648 43 47 249 201 48 31-5-4 17-19-5 1-3 8-2 4W
7 Tampa Bay 82 47 27 8 102 0.622 41 45 294 219 75 29-8-4 18-19-4 2-3 5-5 1L
8 Colorado 82 49 29 4 102 0.622 40 45 277 234 43 26-12-3 23-17-1 4-3 5-5 1W
9 Edmonton 82 48 29 5 101 0.616 36 48 259 236 23 25-13-3 23-16-2 0-1 7-3 1W
10 Carolina 82 47 30 5 99 0.604 42 47 266 233 33 31-9-1 16-21-4 0-3 3-7 3L
11 Florida 82 47 31 4 98 0.598 37 41 252 223 29 27-12-2 20-19-2 6-0 3-7 2L
12 Ottawa 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 35 44 243 234 9 27-11-3 18-19-4 1-2 6-4 1W
13 Minnesota 82 45 30 7 97 0.591 33 42 228 239 -11 22-17-2 23-13-5 3-3 5-5 2W
14 St Louis 82 44 30 8 96 0.585 32 40 254 233 21 24-14-3 20-16-5 4-2 7-3 1W
15 Calgary 81 40 27 14 94 0.58 30 35 220 237 -17 23-12-6 17-15-8 5-2 6-4 3W
16 New Jersey 82 42 33 7 91 0.555 36 40 242 222 20 19-17-5 23-16-2 2-2 5-5 1L
17 Montreal 82 40 31 11 91 0.555 30 38 245 265 -20 23-12-6 17-19-5 2-4 7-3 1W
18 Vancouver 82 38 30 14 90 0.549 28 35 236 253 -17 17-16-8 21-14-6 3-2 4-6 1L
19 Utah 82 38 31 13 89 0.543 30 37 241 251 -10 18-15-8 20-16-5 1-4 6-4 1L
20 Columbus 82 40 33 9 89 0.543 30 34 273 268 5 26-10-5 14-23-4 6-1 7-3 6W
21 Detroit 82 39 35 8 86 0.524 30 36 238 259 -21 22-16-3 17-19-5 3-0 6-4 1L
22 NY Rangers 82 39 36 7 85 0.518 35 38 256 255 1 19-19-3 20-17-4 1-0 5-5 2W
23 NY Islanders 82 35 35 12 82 0.5 28 33 224 260 -36 19-17-5 16-18-7 2-3 3-7 2L
24 Pittsburgh 82 34 36 12 80 0.488 24 33 243 293 -50 21-15-5 13-21-7 1-6 5-5 1W
25 Anaheim 82 35 37 10 80 0.488 24 31 221 263 -42 21-18-2 14-19-8 4-2 3-7 4L
26 Buffalo 82 36 39 7 79 0.482 29 32 269 289 -20 23-15-3 13-24-4 4-2 6-4 1W
27 Seattle 82 35 41 6 76 0.463 28 33 247 265 -18 18-18-5 17-23-1 2-3 5-5 1L
28 Boston 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 26 33 222 272 -50 20-14-7 13-25-3 0-1 3-7 1L
29 Philadelphia 82 33 39 10 76 0.463 21 27 238 286 -48 20-20-1 13-19-9 6-3 5-5 3L
30 Nashville 82 30 44 8 68 0.415 24 28 214 274 -60 20-18-3 10-26-5 2-0 3-7 1W
31 Chicago 82 25 46 11 61 0.372 20 23 226 296 -70 15-20-6 10-26-5 2-4 4-6 2W
32 San Jose 82 20 50 12 52 0.317 14 18 210 315 -105 12-27-2 8-23-10 2-5 0-10 11L

NHL Predictions

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